Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.594260 2.088086 2.747738 3.713919 5.128832e+00 7.184623e+00 10.514480
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.040680 1.539921 2.320755 3.695696 6.207557e+00 1.095004e+01 21.606994
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.797627 1.314712 2.248769 4.216495 8.750787e+00 2.033118e+01 60.344156
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.619769 1.120890 2.149510 4.715372 1.220514e+01 3.913821e+01 205.012074
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.499572 0.983173 2.102192 5.403855 1.783738e+01 8.571531e+01 1113.892825
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.405662 0.859786 2.030532 6.084955 2.597979e+01 2.057830e+02 13745.703459
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.312986 0.699801 1.779899 6.015035 3.196935e+01 4.177809e+02 574196.981921
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.240681 0.560955 1.513539 5.650110 3.647691e+01 8.025130e+02 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.199584 0.487847 1.410771 5.946401 4.956683e+01 2.512501e+03 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.175658 0.452950 1.419046 6.927490 8.112454e+01 1.909337e+04 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.158803 0.432272 1.472246 8.446110 1.505850e+02 1.225919e+06 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.138547 0.392509 1.424191 9.289561 2.414496e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.115032 0.335128 1.272151 9.124578 3.228130e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.094954 0.282468 1.109563 8.569145 3.933456e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.084308 0.259975 1.084207 9.572029 7.432435e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.074854 0.238287 1.049014 10.505292 1.450128e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.067616 0.222477 1.037151 11.936167 3.512231e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.061073 0.206956 1.016326 13.343687 9.516668e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.053036 0.182204 0.917008 12.836013 1.530182e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.045651 0.157989 0.805717 11.680242 1.900796e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.041175 0.145218 0.766468 12.191344 5.183494e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.038588 0.140052 0.779307 14.372041 5.600215e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.036763 0.137772 0.814186 17.921367 6.918326e+08 NaN NaN